9岁男孩，因3个月来面色苍白、皮肤出血点及常流典血就诊。査体：贫血貌，皮肤散在出血点，肝右肋下刚可及，脾未触及，外周血Hb60g/L,WBC2.5x109/L,PLT45x109/L,骨髓增生低下，全片未见巨核细胞。最可能的诊断是

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