如果时间序列的逐期观察值按一定的增长率增长或衰减，则适合的预测模型是( )。[浙江工商大学2011研；安徽财经大学2012样题]

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SQL Error: select id,body,options from ***_enewstiku where sourceid='30464' and id < 2461433 and id<>'2461433' order by id desc limit 5 SQL Error: select id,body,options from ***_enewstiku where sourceid='30464' and id > 2461433 and id<>'2461433' order by id asc limit 5